Is Wheat Ready to Have Its Day?
The spring wheat market has been remarkably quiet this winter, almost to a historically mundane level. Since November 12th, March wheat has traded in a narrow range between 577 and 612. However, since the start of 2025, we’ve begun to see some signs of life, with the trend turning upward and volatility increasing.
We’ve been hearing reports that wheat values are rising in the Black Sea region, driven by lower available supplies and declining exports. The European Union appears to be in a similar situation. In southern Russia, low snow cover caused by above-average temperatures has reduced the risk of winterkill but could lead to challenges if spring rains fail to materialize. Still, it’s difficult to build a supply-side story for wheat while the winter crop remains in dormancy.
The U.S. dollar index has dropped below 108 after reaching 110, but this hasn’t significantly impacted export sales in a positive way... yet, at least.
Watching MATIF Wheat for Clues
One key area to monitor right now is MATIF wheat. The euro has begun to strengthen again against the dollar after collapsing from October through mid-January. While this provided a tailwind for MATIF wheat at times, the market hasn’t been able to sustain those moves. Will this time be different?
MATIF has found support near its recent lows, as well as the levels from late September to early October. If trendline resistance is broken, could we see real short covering, especially if early 2025 highs are taken out? This will be a critical space to watch in the coming weeks.
The Wheat-Corn Relationship
Another factor suggesting that wheat could eventually have its day is its historically low price relative to corn. This isn’t to say wheat must rally—corn could just as easily sell off—but the disparity implies wheat is buying demand in ways that are often difficult to measure. This dynamic increases the potential for a market shock somewhere down the line.
For now, basis has weakened, as have futures spreads, so we’ll have to wait and see. But with a market this quiet, even a small spark could have outsized effects.
Garret Brown
Founder | Market Advisor
Having grown up on a farm, Garret respects the wide range of skills needed to run a successful operation and recognizes farmers are often stretched thin trying to do it all. This understanding, along with his affinity for markets, fuels his drive to make tough marketing decisions simpler for farmers.
Leveraging his experience in grain origination and margin management, Garret analyzes technical and fundamental market information. With the assistance of CODAK’s algorithmic signaling platform, he puts together buy/sell recommendations while working with the CODAK team to create strategies that accommodate each farmer’s personal risk tolerance, on-farm storage capacity, and break-evens.