Safrinha Corn Crop: Why U.S. Producers Should Monitor Brazil’s Second Corn Crop
The Global Impact of Safrinha Corn on U.S. Producers
As U.S. farmers continue planting this season, one key factor could heavily influence their profitability—Brazil’s Safrinha corn crop. Accounting for nearly 70% of Brazil’s annual corn production, this second crop directly competes with U.S. exports on the global market. But Safrinha yields are highly volatile, and even slight weather changes in Brazil can cause ripples on the global balance sheet.
Brazil’s Latest Forecast: A Mixed Bag
Brazil received around 5.1 inches of rain in late April—slightly above average. These rains have temporarily eased concerns about yield loss. However, the 14-day outlook shows below-average rainfall and above-normal temperatures, raising alarms for the next phase of crop development. These conditions may start to pull crop ratings downward, a concern for both Brazilian growers and a possible pricing opportunity for U.S. producers.
Tracking Brazil’s Crop Health with NDVI
To stay ahead of potential market shifts, many analysts now rely on NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to help provide context to conditions on the ground. This satellite-based metric tracks the "greenness" of the crop, giving a real-time sense of plant health. The Safrinha crop currently sits at a strong 0.72 NDVI—well above average with recent rains. But with a drier, hotter forecast on the horizon, this index could begin to slide, signaling potential yield risk.
🔗 For more in-depth updates on Brazil’s crop conditions, visit: Crop Prophet – Brazil Crop Weather Information
Source: Crop Prophet | USDA
Connor Oie
Market Advisor, Great Plains
Connor combines his commercial grain trading experience with growing up on and continued involvement in his family’s corn, soybean, and hog operation to bring our clients practical, profitable marketing solutions.
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