When the Report Doesn’t Come: Navigating Grain Markets Without WASDE
We were supposed to get a WASDE report this month. We didn’t.
That’s thrown a wrench into the usual rhythm for a lot of folks. Normally, by now, we’d be talking through updated yield numbers, export adjustments, and whatever curveball USDA throws in. Instead, we’re all kind of flying by feel.
And that’s fine. Markets don’t stop because a report didn’t show up.
No report doesn’t mean no information
There’s still plenty to look at. You just have to dig a bit.
Start with Basis
Basis has been doing more talking lately than any spreadsheet will. You can see where elevators are comfortable and where they’re not. That tells you a lot about local demand and movement. We’ve been hearing and seeing a lot of anecdotal evidence of basis improvements in corn and beans from North Dakota to Kentucky, although there was a softening following China’s escalation in the trade war.
Watch the Future Spreads
Futures spreads tell us whether the delivery system is pulling bushels forward to meet demand or telling us that supply is adequate up front and pushing it out with increased carry. This image shows an uptrend of the Dec-Jul corn spread. Prior to China’s escalation the trend was picking up speed, but the headlines took that strength away. After testing trendline support, the spread began to strengthen again.
Dec - Jul Corn
Exports, Satellites & Anecdotes Still Count
Exports still matter too — shipment data is still trickling out, and it gives at least a partial view of global pull. Then there’s private data, satellite imagery, local yield reports. None of it is perfect, but put together, it still paints a picture.
Point is, we’re not blind. We just don’t have the polished version from USDA this round. It’s also important to keep in mind that the data is just their best guess and something we know to be inaccurate. We just don’t know how far off the truth they are.
This is where the plan matters
When data thins out, emotion creeps in. That’s when bad decisions get made.
At CODAK, we rely on structured planning over sudden reactions. We use a Trigger Method—a set of price and time checkpoints that push us to act with intention, not emotion. It keeps us disciplined, whether the market’s loud or eerily quiet.
Let the quiet work for you
Right now’s a good time to pull back and look at the bigger picture.
How’s your position balance look?
Are your hedge levels where they should be?
Does every bushel have a home?
Any cash flow timing issues coming up post-harvest?
Use this lull to clean things up. The next WASDE (whenever it comes) will bring noise back into the mix. Better to have your house in order before that happens.
Bottom line
No WASDE this month? Big deal.
Basis is still talking. Spreads are still shifting. Markets are still trading.
At CODAK, we don’t build strategy around one report — we build it around preparation. So if you’re feeling lost without that familiar USDA headline, take that as a sign to double-check your plan instead of waiting for theirs.
Stay steady. Stay disciplined. Control what you can.
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Garret Brown
Founder | Market Advisor
Having grown up on a farm, Garret respects the wide range of skills needed to run a successful operation and recognizes farmers are often stretched thin trying to do it all. This understanding, along with his affinity for markets, fuels his drive to make tough marketing decisions simpler for farmers.
Leveraging his experience in grain origination and margin management, Garret analyzes technical and fundamental market information. With the assistance of CODAK’s algorithmic signaling platform, he puts together buy/sell recommendations while working with the CODAK team to create strategies that accommodate each farmer’s personal risk tolerance, on-farm storage capacity, and break-evens.