November WASDE Preview: Don’t Expect Too Much
You know what they say about opinions—so I’ll skip the vulgarity. But if we’re talking about negativity in this year’s market commentary, it’s safe to say: Fact Checked True.
Earlier this season, soybean basis in parts of North Dakota was pressing -1.50 against November futures, and yield projections were climbing to 54 bushels per acre—all while China sat out. Fast forward, and we’ve sold some -70 January in ND, with the national cash price rising over $1.46/bushel according to BarChart’s index. Did you have a record yield with no demand and a price rally on your BINGO card?
Déjà Vu, Anyone?
Strangely enough, we’ve seen a similar price story before. Last season, beans rallied not just once, but twice. Once into harvest, and again into the presidential inauguration, despite a record Brazilian crop and bearish sentiment calling for $8 beans.
The lesson? Be careful with narratives. They can be costly. Don’t forget to think for yourself.
What to Expect from the November WASDE
USDA will release the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, or WASDE for short, on Friday, November 14th. Estimates released by Reuters suggest nearly a half-bushel decline of bean yield and just over 2.5 bushel decline of corn yield. Domestic carryout estimates look for soybeans to remain flat, indicating ~35-40mb of additional cuts to exports and a cut of Feed and Residual corn demand of around 250-300 million bushels. That would take F&R down to 5800-5850 million bushels. Ethanol production and exports are off to a great start, and in my opinion, it’s too early to reduce ethanol, but also too early to increase exports (but it’s looking good).
Expectations vs. Reality
Be prepared for disappointment if you’re looking for dramatic declines in production this week. Back in 2024, we saw USDA reduce corn yield by 0.7 bushels per acre before making the dramatic 3.8 bushel cut in January. Interestingly, harvested acres increased in January despite a decrease in planted acres. The opposite of what I expect this season.
We saw USDA cut soybean yield by 1.4 bushels per acre in November and another 1.0 in January while cutting harvested acres by 200k.
Why do I think we could be disappointed?
When the government shut down on October 1st, 2025, harvested corn acres were estimated to be just 18% while soybeans harvested were estimated to be around 19%. I’ve heard that there is no way RMA even has yields in the database. Therefore, while we’d normally see some real yields showing up in the analysis for November (hence the dramatic changes we sometimes see), we should be cautious about expecting too much this month. I hope I’m wrong.
Markets rally without data
In the absence of government data, corn, soybeans, and wheat have rallied. Soybean meal rallied for a couple of weeks without trading lower. Corn and soybean basis improved dramatically during and especially after harvest, and corn spreads traded a similar trajectory to 2024. Beans are more bullish than last year.
But when StoneX released their Client Survey, which, to my understanding, is largely made up of commercials, we saw markets pull back sharply as if to refocus on paper yield and paper carryout. Could we see the same again? If so, it could mean a period of malaise until January, when the non-final “final” numbers are released in the Annual Summary. This could be unhelpful for those who took reownership positions via calls as theta decays.
Final Thought
If you're hoping for fireworks from the November WASDE, you might be let down. But just like last year showed, the market can surprise. Stay cautious, stay flexible, and remember: the loudest narrative isn’t always the right one.
Garret Brown
Founder | Market Advisor
Having grown up on a farm, Garret respects the wide range of skills needed to run a successful operation and recognizes farmers are often stretched thin trying to do it all. This understanding, along with his affinity for markets, fuels his drive to make tough marketing decisions simpler for farmers.
Leveraging his experience in grain origination and margin management, Garret analyzes technical and fundamental market information. With the assistance of CODAK’s algorithmic signaling platform, he puts together buy/sell recommendations while working with the CODAK team to create strategies that accommodate each farmer’s personal risk tolerance, on-farm storage capacity, and break-evens.