Record Corn Yields? The Market's Betting on It—But Is That Realistic?
We are currently sitting at 74% G/E across the US for corn condition ratings. The last time we were above this mark at the same time of year was 2016, when the USDA had corn conditions pegged at 76% G/E. That season, the final yield outpaced trend by more than 4.5%.
We’ve seen similar setups before—2014 and 2018 come to mind—when strong midseason ratings translated into good national yields. So, it’s not surprising that many traders are tossing around yield estimates in the ballpark of 188 bu/ac nationally.
While this is a massive yield, it isn’t out of the realm of possibility at only 3.9% above trend. We’ve had yields outpace trend by margins larger than this on multiple occasions over the past 20 years. But every year is different — this year isn’t without its headaches.
There have been excessive rains resulting in drown-out and uneven crops in many pockets throughout the US. While the market hasn’t found this concerning, I think it will make a yield of 188 that much more of a challenge to attain.
More recently there has been a lot of chatter surrounding pollination issues in corn from tassel wrap — a condition where the tassel becomes tightly wrapped by the plant’s top leaves preventing proper pollination and reproduction. This can be caused by a variety of stress factors, including excess moisture. The size or scope of the yield impact is unknown, but it will be something traders continue to monitor.
Source: USDA | Are you seeing wrapped tassels shedding pollen? We are too! | Integrated Crop Management
Connor Oie
Market Advisor, Great Plains
Connor combines his commercial grain trading experience with growing up on and continued involvement in his family’s corn, soybean, and hog operation to bring our clients practical, profitable marketing solutions.
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