Chill Before the Chart: ND Crops Hit Just Before September WASDE
Frost Reports in North Dakota: More Widespread Than Expected
This past weekend brought an unexpected jolt to parts of North Dakota. Initial frost reports underestimated the damage, but updated accounts from clients and contacts tell a more sobering story. From west of Steele to Devils Lake, Minot, Bottineau — and even low spots in Pembina County — frost was far more widespread than early minimum temperature maps suggested.
Source: North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN), North Dakota State University. https://ndawn.ndsu.nodak.edu
A client near Wimbledon described the air as smelling like “fresh cut hay” — a telltale sign of a harder freeze. That smell often points to plant cell rupture, meaning more severe frost damage. Morning fog delayed warming, amplifying the impact.
Soybeans at Risk Amid Tight Carryout Projections
Corn damage, while locally important, is unlikely to move the national market. Local test weights may dip, but soybeans are a different story.
North Dakota is set to harvest the fourth most soybean acres in the U.S., and any dent in yield here could ripple nationally. With overall U.S. acreage down and soybean carryout already projected tighter than last year (290M bu. vs. 560M bu. in August), there’s little room for error.
Add in a super dry finish to the 2025 season, and concerns intensify. The ramp-up in September heat will only speed up dry-down, potentially cutting yields even further.
September WASDE: Yield Forecasts in the Spotlight
As we absorb the frost impact, market attention shifts to Friday’s September WASDE report. Yield estimates vary widely. Historically, years with optimistic corn yield revisions between August and October — like 2018, 2020, and 2024 — have often been walked back in later reports.
History Repeats: Corn Yield Revisions in High-Yield Years
The chart below shows the pattern: high early yield estimates eventually lowered — sometimes significantly. Even in strong crop years, initial optimism often fades.
Of the last ten years, only three saw sharp yield estimate increases from August to October. All three were later revised down. And no, 2020’s drop can’t be pinned entirely on the derecho.
Even a slight drop — say from 188.8 to 184.0 bpa — could mean a 425-million-bushel production hit. That’s substantial, especially when USDA has underestimated corn demand by over 400 million bushels across the past two marketing years.
So, Are We Setting Up for Another Walk-Back?
With anecdotal frost damage suggesting more harm than models show and a tight soybean supply picture, this September WASDE could bring fireworks.
We’re just 10 days into the new marketing year — but with tighter margins, unpredictable weather, and a history of yield revisions, it’s time to look at the data very closely.
Sources: USDA NASS | North Dakota Agricultural Weather Network (NDAWN)
Garret Brown
Founder | Market Advisor
Having grown up on a farm, Garret respects the wide range of skills needed to run a successful operation and recognizes farmers are often stretched thin trying to do it all. This understanding, along with his affinity for markets, fuels his drive to make tough marketing decisions simpler for farmers.
Leveraging his experience in grain origination and margin management, Garret analyzes technical and fundamental market information. With the assistance of CODAK’s algorithmic signaling platform, he puts together buy/sell recommendations while working with the CODAK team to create strategies that accommodate each farmer’s personal risk tolerance, on-farm storage capacity, and break-evens.