Trade Tensions Timeline: September–October 2025
September 19
A scheduled call between President Trump and President Xi raised market hopes that China would announce purchases of U.S. soybeans. While no such purchases were confirmed, both leaders agreed to meet at the APEC Summit in South Korea at the end of October. Reports described the conversation as candid and positively received by both sides.
Early October – Rising Tensions
The first week of October saw a sharp escalation in trade tensions:
China did not follow through on U.S. soybean purchases.
Beijing imposed export controls on rare earth materials.
The U.S. retaliated with port fees targeting China-linked vessels.
On October 10, Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods starting November 1.
Just two days later, on October 12, Trump softened his tone, saying Xi had “a bad moment” and expressed optimism about future negotiations.
Mid-October – Heated Rhetoric and Strategic Moves
On October 16, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stirred controversy by calling China’s top trade negotiator “unhinged” and “disrespectful.”
Meanwhile, Reuters reported that China would need to purchase 8–9 million metric tons of soybeans for December–January delivery to bridge the gap until the South American crop becomes available.
Around this time, China considered auctioning off 3.5 million metric tons of soybeans from its reserves—potentially avoiding purchases from Brazil. We noted North Dakota soybeans as a suitable replacement in reserves due to their lower oil content, which improves storability.
On October 17, Trump announced a 25% tariff on imported trucks and warned of a possible 155% tariff if a fair deal wasn’t reached.
October 20–23 – Personnel Changes and Summit Confirmation
China removed Li Chenggang from his role as its representative to the World Trade Organization. Although Beijing claimed it was a routine personnel change, the timing suggested it was a response to Bessent’s remarks.
Between October 21–23, both countries confirmed that Trump and Xi would meet on October 30 in South Korea.
October 24–26 – Malaysia Talks and Draft Deal
Treasury Secretary Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng met in Malaysia to draft a trade agreement for review at the upcoming summit. After two days of intensive negotiations, they finalized the draft on October 26.
Looking Ahead
The key question now is whether Trump and Xi will sign the deal on October 30. After a month of rollercoaster developments, the consensus is cautiously optimistic that both sides will move forward and finalize the agreement.
Ben Nuss
Market Strategist Assistant
With experience in grain buying and seed sales, Ben supports the CODAK team by aligning market strategies with farmer needs. As a market strategist assistant, he puts farmers first through practical, data-driven insights.
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