In early December, U.S. corn farmers ramped up sales, driven by cash flow needs, improved basis, and the highest cash prices since 2021. This surge was reflected in weakening futures spreads and increased short positions. Now, the market is at a crossroads—will bullish spreads hold, or has the rally peaked? Key indicators like basis stability, futures spreads, and price trends will shape the next move.

With shrinking working capital, rising input costs, and outdated farm safety nets, U.S. farmers are feeling the pressure. The proposed FARM Act offers potential financial relief, but with a $21 billion price tag, its passage is uncertain. As Congress races toward a December 20th deadline, another Farm Bill extension seems likely. The question remains: will lawmakers address the growing strain on the farm economy, or is this the beginning of the end for traditional farm support?

Minneapolis wheat bids are heating up, with strong domestic demand and lower rail freight costs driving historically high basis levels. Spot floor auctions reveal competitive bidding, particularly for 14.0% protein spring wheat, trading between +1.80H and +2.60H. Meanwhile, declining secondary freight rates—nearly $1,000 per car lower than earlier in the season—are further supporting elevated prices. As elevators navigate margins and market conditions, the strength of the spot floor continues to influence broader wheat pricing trends.

Corn basis and spreads remain firm despite a record yield, driven by strong ethanol production, higher export sales, and lower stocks-to-use projections. Basis has rallied while spreads have tightened, signaling strong demand despite an initially undersold farmer position.

Corn export sales are off to a strong start, up 1.4% from last year, with shipments 34% higher. While some believe countries are frontloading due to political uncertainty, steady shipments suggest strong demand. Key buyers like Mexico and Colombia are purchasing record amounts, while China remains absent. With global stocks tightening among major exporters, the U.S. is well-positioned to capture more business, especially with lower corn prices supporting demand.