Managed Money has made a dramatic shift in corn ownership, swinging from a record short position in 2024 to a massive long position heading into 2025. While this buying spree has lifted prices, the risk of a sudden selloff remains high, especially if bearish factors emerge this spring. With farmers holding large unsold portions of their crop, understanding the interplay between market speculation and fundamental supply shifts will be critical for navigating the year ahead.

Crop insurance is more than a safety net—it’s a key tool for managing risk and optimizing grain marketing. With tighter 2025 margins, increased subsidies, and evolving coverage options, farmers can better align insurance guarantees with market opportunities. Leveraging crop insurance strategically can protect revenue and enhance profitability in an uncertain ag landscape.

Profitability projections for the 2025 crop year remain uncertain, with breakeven prices and margins varying by region. While corn tends to outperform soybeans in fringe areas, the reverse is true in the central corn belt. Farmers are hesitant to lock in prices, as many would be selling at a loss. With tight margins, careful acreage planning and maximizing productivity will be key for the year ahead.

In early December, U.S. corn farmers ramped up sales, driven by cash flow needs, improved basis, and the highest cash prices since 2021. This surge was reflected in weakening futures spreads and increased short positions. Now, the market is at a crossroads—will bullish spreads hold, or has the rally peaked? Key indicators like basis stability, futures spreads, and price trends will shape the next move.

With shrinking working capital, rising input costs, and outdated farm safety nets, U.S. farmers are feeling the pressure. The proposed FARM Act offers potential financial relief, but with a $21 billion price tag, its passage is uncertain. As Congress races toward a December 20th deadline, another Farm Bill extension seems likely. The question remains: will lawmakers address the growing strain on the farm economy, or is this the beginning of the end for traditional farm support?

Minneapolis wheat bids are heating up, with strong domestic demand and lower rail freight costs driving historically high basis levels. Spot floor auctions reveal competitive bidding, particularly for 14.0% protein spring wheat, trading between +1.80H and +2.60H. Meanwhile, declining secondary freight rates—nearly $1,000 per car lower than earlier in the season—are further supporting elevated prices. As elevators navigate margins and market conditions, the strength of the spot floor continues to influence broader wheat pricing trends.

Corn basis and spreads remain firm despite a record yield, driven by strong ethanol production, higher export sales, and lower stocks-to-use projections. Basis has rallied while spreads have tightened, signaling strong demand despite an initially undersold farmer position.

Corn export sales are off to a strong start, up 1.4% from last year, with shipments 34% higher. While some believe countries are frontloading due to political uncertainty, steady shipments suggest strong demand. Key buyers like Mexico and Colombia are purchasing record amounts, while China remains absent. With global stocks tightening among major exporters, the U.S. is well-positioned to capture more business, especially with lower corn prices supporting demand.