Early Corn Condition Ratings: A Season Off to a Shaky Start?
Image courtesy of Real Ag Stock
2025 Crop Emergence Surges Ahead
According to the latest USDA Crop Progress report, this year’s corn crop is emerging quickly — 7% ahead of the 5-year average and 12% ahead of last year. A strong start in terms of emergence. However, condition ratings tell a different story.
Lower-Than-Average Good-to-Excellent Ratings Raise Concerns
The first Good-to-Excellent (G/E) rating for the 2025 crop came in at 68%, falling short of the average trade estimate and marking the weakest early rating in the past five years — only 2019 saw a lower initial rating, and that year ended with one of the poorest yields in recent memory.
Despite a lower start, USDA is projecting a 181 bpa trendline yield and a 1.8-billion-bushel carryout. However, historical data suggests that similar or lower condition ratings have not supported such high yields. For instance, no year starting below 70% G/E has matched the USDA’s current projection.
A Balancing Act Ahead
While the growing season is still young, these early ratings raise flags. Given global supply concerns and a tight domestic balance sheet, there’s little margin for error. Future condition reports and in-season developments will be crucial in validating or challenging the optimistic USDA projections.
Source: USDA Crop Progress Report
Alex Andel
Basis and Freight | Market Advisor, Northern Plains
As our basis and freight expert, Alex assesses current market conditions and forecasts future scenarios. His keen insights create transparency in the cash market, resulting in significant returns for our clients.
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