Planting Outlook: Corn and Soybeans – Ahead in Some, Stalled in Others
As planting progresses across the U.S., a tale of two regions unfolds: rapid progress in many states, but rain-drenched delays in others.
Corn Planting Progress: A Mixed Bag
Corn planting in the U.S. is 87% complete—2% ahead of the 5-year average. However, while many regions are ahead of schedule, the Eastern Corn Belt tells a different story. Heavy rains have stalled progress in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee, with over 6 million corn acres yet to be planted in those states alone.
Ohio is the furthest behind, trailing the average by 19%, with 1.5 million acres still unplanted.
Nationwide, 12 million corn acres remain unplanted as of the latest USDA estimates.
Soybean Planting: Faster, But Delays in a Few States
Soybeans are ahead of pace at 76% planted, compared to the 68% 5-year average. Still, states like Kentucky, Mississippi, and Ohio are falling behind due to unrelenting rainfall.
Nearly 13 million acres of soybeans remain to be planted.
Persistent rain in the Eastern Corn Belt is the primary culprit for delays.
Weather Outlook: More Delays Ahead?
Forecasts show 1.5”–2” of rain in the next 7 days across already-soaked regions. If these rains hit, producers may need to reconsider their acreage plans—or start exploring prevent plant insurance options.
Will Prevent Plant Decisions Start to Surface?
With rain persisting and the calendar flipping closer to June, growers in the Eastern Corn Belt may begin to weigh their options more seriously. Prevent plant—a crop insurance provision allowing farmers to leave fields unplanted due to excessive weather—may become increasingly attractive if soil conditions don’t improve.
For corn specifically, many insurance policies have final planting dates approaching fast (early June for most of the impacted states). After those dates, yield penalties typically begin to apply, further discouraging late planting. This puts pressure on producers to decide quickly:
Stick to their original planting intentions and risk poor stands,
Switch some acres to soybeans, which have a slightly later planting window, or
Trigger prevent plant, cutting losses, but also potential production.
Market Implications
As more acres remain in limbo, market watchers are eyeing the situation closely. A sizable number of unplanted corn or soybean acres could reduce overall U.S. production estimates and lend support to futures prices, especially if prevent plant claims surge.
Expect volatility in the weeks ahead as traders respond to daily planting reports, shifting weather models, and updates from the USDA.
Looking Ahead
The next 10–14 days will be critical in determining how many acres are ultimately planted, and where. Key things to watch:
Rain totals and field conditions across Kentucky, Ohio, and surrounding states
Farmer sentiment and updated acreage intentions
Any USDA revisions to expected planted acres in the June acreage report
Producers and analysts alike will be hoping for drier weather to salvage what’s left of the planting window.
🔗 Learn more about upcoming U.S. weather forecasts → US Weather Forecasts
Source: USDA | Crop Prophet
Connor Oie
Market Advisor, Great Plains
Connor combines his commercial grain trading experience with growing up on and continued involvement in his family’s corn, soybean, and hog operation to bring our clients practical, profitable marketing solutions.
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