3 Pricing Mistakes That Cost Farmers More Than a Drought
Most farmers spend a lot of time worrying about the weather – and for good reason. A drought can take the top end off a crop in a hurry.
But here’s the reality: I’ve seen farms lose $0.50-$1.00 per bushel from poor marketing decisions. On a 200,000-bushel operation, that’s $100,000-$200,000 without a single weather issue.
You can’t control the weather. But you can control how and when you sell your grain.
Here are three common and costly pricing mistakes I see and how to avoid them.
Mistake #1: Waiting for the High
Farmer looking at grain market chart | Image from Real Ag Stock
This is the most common—and the most expensive—mistake.
It usually sounds like:
“I’m just waiting for another 25 cents.”
“I’ll sell when it gets back to the high.”
The reality? Most years, the market only trades within 5–10 cents of the high for a very short window. And markets don’t send a signal that says, “This is the top.”
By the time it’s obvious, the opportunity is gone.
Then the market pulls back. You wait for a bounce. It never comes. And you end up selling lower than you could have weeks—or even months—earlier.
What to Do Instead
Scale into your sales.
Set price targets ahead of time—and stick to them.
You don’t need to hit the high to be successful. You just need consistency and discipline. Reward the market when it gives you profitable opportunities.
Mistake #2: Selling Too Much Too Early
Farmer signing paperwork (symbolizing early sale) | Image from Real Ag Stock
This is the opposite problem—but just as damaging.
It often looks like:
Getting too aggressive before the market develops
Selling out of fear instead of strategy
Yes, early sales can protect you. But overdoing it can box you in.
There are plenty of cases where farmers sell 60% of their crop before summer—only to watch a weather rally push prices up 70 cents in June or July. At that point, there’s nothing left to sell.
Now you’re stuck watching the market climb—with no way to benefit.
What to Do Instead
Balance protection with flexibility.
Don’t sell yourself out of opportunity. Build a plan that allows you to:
Protect downside risk
Maintain upside potential
Tools like call options or minimum price strategies can help you stay in the game without taking on unlimited risk.
Early sales should protect your downside—not eliminate your upside.
Mistake #3: Having No Re-Ownership Strategy
Farmer watching market charts after harvest | Image from Real Ag Stock
This one gets overlooked a lot.
Many farmers treat selling grain as the final step: sell the cash grain and move on.
But the market doesn’t stop just because you sold.
In fact, some of the best opportunities come after harvest.
Here’s a common scenario:
Prices hit harvest lows
Then rally 40–60 cents afterward
But there’s no position in place to capture that move
What to Do Instead
Have a re-ownership strategy.
Re-own grain “on paper” when it makes sense. A simple tool like buying a call option gives you:
Upside exposure
Defined cost
No margin calls
No unlimited risk
Real Example
A farmer forward contracts corn at $4.80.
During harvest, prices drop to $4.40—then rally to $5.00.
Without a plan, that’s 60 cents missed.
With a call option, you stay in the game and capture part of that rally.
Final Thoughts
Grain marketing isn’t about making one perfect decision.
It’s about making a series of disciplined decisions over time.
You can’t control rainfall, temperatures, or market swings—but you can control your strategy.
Have a plan. Stick to it. And put yourself in a position to be consistently profitable.
Caylee Lair
Market Advisor, Midwest
With 7.5 years of experience in the grain elevator industry, Caylee has a strong foundation in grain merchandising and marketing. She is passionate about helping producers make confident, informed marketing decisions that support their long-term success.
Connect with Caylee