Harvest Basis and Storage Strategy: Opportunities Amid Pressure
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Current Soybean Basis Trends
Over the past month, soybean basis at harvest has taken a noticeable hit, trading well below historic levels. This trend is driven by the lack of Chinese purchases and a harvest program dominated by countries that aren’t typically large buyers. While this dynamic keeps bushels moving, it’s not exactly creating excitement in the market.
Adding to the situation, a lack of Pacific Northwest (PNW) export competition means local crush plants aren't incentivized to push aggressively at harvest. Much of the volume has already been sold, fulfilling most near-term demand. However, there is a silver lining: forward-month basis levels are showing meaningful improvement, and market carry is strong enough to offset storage and interest costs—creating a compelling case for storing beans when possible.
Corn Basis: Strength and Strategy
The story for corn looks more optimistic. The PNW corn program is particularly robust this year, with reports from multiple elevators showing record-high shuttle bookings. Basis levels have held steady and are even reaching historic highs—making corn more appealing to move at harvest compared to soybeans.
Still, complications loom. Storm damage across parts of North Dakota has left many farmers unable to recover their on-farm storage capacity. With many bins filled with soybeans or damaged outright, we may see a bottleneck as excess corn bushels flood the market.
To stay ahead of this potential congestion, farmers should be proactive in locking in basis or cash contracts for harvest delivery. This strategy helps secure market access and keeps the combines rolling.
Deferred Month Opportunities and Storage Management
Beyond immediate harvest, there are attractive opportunities in the deferred months. Ethanol plants are showing strong carries into June and July, with some bids offering up to a 62-cent gain. These carry premiums present real potential for added profitability if storage is managed well.
Controlling bin space effectively will be key this harvest—especially as space becomes a premium with both soybean storage needs and corn volumes pressing in. Capturing carry through strategic storage in both corn and soybeans will not only maximize returns but also help maintain harvest efficiency.
Alex Andel
Basis and Freight | Market Advisor, Northern Plains
As our basis and freight expert, Alex assesses current market conditions and forecasts future scenarios. His keen insights create transparency in the cash market, resulting in significant returns for our clients.
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