PNW Grain Basis Update: Demand Shifts, Freight Relief, and Waning Support
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PNW Corn Basis: Strong Early Demand, Weaker Forward Signals
PNW corn basis experienced strong demand earlier, helping move significant volumes out of the interior. However, cheaper secondary freight values have recently pressured bid levels lower. As we approach the end of the JFM shipment window, many exporters have already secured much of their coverage for the time slot.
The market dynamic has notably shifted—from exporters actively calling commercials in search of corn bushels to now offering the bid sheet when commercials initiate contact. This signals that nearby demand has largely been satisfied.
Looking ahead, anticipated large on-farm stocks reduce the likelihood of aggressive basis appreciation. As summer approaches, grain typically needs to flow toward export channels as farmers clear bin space, further limiting basis upside.
PNW Soybean Basis: Firm, but Lacking Fresh Excitement
PNW soybean basis has remained relatively firm, though market enthusiasm has been muted following China’s 12 MMT purchase agreement. Exporters continue to post steady bids through May, but without new demand, the market is primarily focused on fulfilling already known commitments.
As South American shipment windows expand, it appears unlikely that China will return to the U.S. market for additional near-term purchases. That said, there is a potential wildcard: increased buying from Brazil could strain their export capacity, potentially shifting some demand back to the U.S.—a scenario that would help support soybean basis.
Freight Market: Bottlenecks Ease, but Basis Pays the Price
Commercial execution of existing contracts has significantly eased earlier freight bottlenecks, with a large portion of shipments now completed. While grain still needs to move, current freight conditions are far removed from harvest-time congestion.
Freight rates have dropped substantially, but the lack of fresh demand following the shipment glut has resulted in weakening basis levels. As a result, much of the freight savings has been offset by softer bids, leaving overall market economics largely unchanged.
Looking Ahead
As we head into spring and summer, basis in the PNW is likely to stay under pressure unless new export demand shows up. Most nearby needs are already covered, and while freight is cheaper, that alone isn’t enough to lift bids. With plenty of grain still sitting on farms, movement will be important as bins need to be cleaned out. For now, staying flexible, watching basis opportunities closely, and being ready to move grain when small windows open may be the best approach in the months ahead.
Alex Andel
Basis and Freight | Market Advisor, Northern Plains
As our basis and freight expert, Alex assesses current market conditions and forecasts future scenarios. His keen insights create transparency in the cash market, resulting in significant returns for our clients.
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