Put Price in Perspective: Soybeans, Corn, and the Road Ahead
Last week, Kyle touched on some of the underlying drivers of soybean prices—Chinese demand, trade policy, currency, and Brazil. This season has been incredibly stressful, with many (most?) farmers asking: When exactly are we supposed to sell for a profit?
As we speed toward harvest—and with the Pro Farmer Tour underway—I thought it’d be helpful to zoom out and look at the soybean chart from a high level since December 2024. When in doubt, scroll out.
Remember Last Season?
When now-President Trump won the election, beans were “supposed” to collapse to $8. Instead, the Nov ’25 contract made a low in early December at $9.61, then rallied into and past inauguration day, topping at $10.7575 a bushel.
It was one of the more “hated” rallies in recent memory. Same could be said for corn—front month rallied from $3.60 to about $5.00.
Point being: pundits often get it wrong, and memories in the grain trade are short.
Where We Are Now
At time of writing, soybeans closed down 8¢ at $10.33 a bushel. Over the last several days, there’s been an opportunity to lock in additional bushels at $10.45—a level that represents just over 73% of the available trading range over the past 9+ months.
Maybe you have no sales on the books. While $10.45 may not seem exciting given current production costs, we’re nearing the end of the growing season, with a two-week forecast in hand that captures most of what’s left. New crop futures are trading between 63%–75% of this year’s available price range. Keep in mind how rarely Nov beans traded above $10.60 during that time.
This isn’t a recommendation—just an observation. Production risk now isn’t what it was three months ago.
Thinking About Re-Ownership?
If you must make sales for harvest but can’t move corn to store beans, re-owning soybeans could be an option. But before jumping in, ask yourself:
What are you trying to gain?
Is it an extra 20–30¢? At 52-bushel beans, 20¢ adds $10.40 per acre.
Or is it $1–2? Positioning matters.
What’s your tolerance for risk?
Futures contracts carry significant exposure.
Call options define your risk, though they cost premium. There are trade-offs.
How much do you want to spend?
Option values have fallen with lower volatility.
But with tight or negative margins, “throwing good money after bad” is a fair concern.
What’s your timeline?
Short-term ownership? November contract might fit.
Longer horizon? January or later options may be better suited
Will China step in between Brazil’s harvests—and if so, when?
A Market Between $9.00 and $12.00
When we sit down with clients, we’re upfront: this market looks like a $9.00–$12.00 range. Plenty can still shift depending on:
China’s buying behavior
Final U.S. yields and August S&D adjustments
Brazil’s planting campaign
Market sentiment (shape matters)
Managing Price Risk in 2026
Looking further out, 2026 presents its own challenges. Fertilizer costs for fall application look astronomical, which could push more acres into beans as operations trim working capital requirements to raise a crop. If that acreage switch reaches 4–5 million in the U.S., the balance sheet changes fast.
Nov ’26 futures recently traded over $10.70. For those familiar with accumulators, selling Nov ’26 futures via HTA and the $11.20 call could have yielded an effective accumulation price of $11.15, with:
No knockout
No margin to manage on the HTA
Flexibility on the short call option although it’s marginable
Again, this isn’t a trade recommendation. Just a reminder: another season is always around the corner, and it requires its own price risk strategy.
Final Takeaway
Soybean prices live in context. Zooming out—whether looking back at “hated rallies,” today’s tight trading ranges, or forward into 2026—helps bring clarity. Decisions may never be simple, but perspective is always an edge.
Source: Dan Martell’s Buy Back Your Time
Garret Brown
Founder | Market Advisor
Having grown up on a farm, Garret respects the wide range of skills needed to run a successful operation and recognizes farmers are often stretched thin trying to do it all. This understanding, along with his affinity for markets, fuels his drive to make tough marketing decisions simpler for farmers.
Leveraging his experience in grain origination and margin management, Garret analyzes technical and fundamental market information. With the assistance of CODAK’s algorithmic signaling platform, he puts together buy/sell recommendations while working with the CODAK team to create strategies that accommodate each farmer’s personal risk tolerance, on-farm storage capacity, and break-evens.