Will PNW Corn Shipments Fill the Void Left by Chinese Soybean Purchases?
We’ve been hearing the same song and dance over the last two months: no Chinese soybean purchases and sluggish soybean business out of the PNW. But while soybeans sit on the sidelines, corn exports out of the Pacific Northwest are holding strong.
Corn Exports Holding Steady
Old crop corn exports have shown consistent sales through September, with robust new crop programs lined up to move significant bushels during harvest. Ports remain active, helping offset the lack of soybean trade.
Storage Challenges Driving Movement
Storms in North Dakota damaged both farm and commercial storage, forcing bushels to move quickly at harvest. With space constraints creating bottlenecks, elevators are focused on fluidity, relying heavily on shuttle logistics to keep grain flowing.
Rail & Execution: The Key to Market Flow
Rail execution will be a make-or-break factor that ultimately determines how grain moves and how well local elevator liquidity holds up. Elevators already have shuttles on the books, space needs to stay fluid, and storm damage has chewed up a lot of storage. That combination could take a bite out of Jan–Mar corn storage and again through the June–September stretch on-farm. With storage tight and harvest pressure heavy, it all comes down to performance because that’s what will define market stability.
Looking Ahead: Tight Supply for 2025 Programs?
While near-term exports remain robust, storage losses could create gaps later. As we move into the new year, spring and summer programs could struggle to keep up with demand, since storage constraints kept a lot of harvest bushels from ever making it to the bins.
👉 Bottom line: Corn is stepping up to fill the gap left by soybeans, but storage and logistics will shape how long this support lasts.
Alex Andel
Basis and Freight | Market Advisor, Northern Plains
As our basis and freight expert, Alex assesses current market conditions and forecasts future scenarios. His keen insights create transparency in the cash market, resulting in significant returns for our clients.
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