U.S. Corn Exports Set to Break Records as Supply Tightens
Strong corn exports throughout the year have put the U.S. on track for record-breaking numbers. Coupled with robust domestic use, we continue to see U.S. corn carryout dwindle month after month. Looking ahead, we have just three WASDE reports remaining for the old crop, and the U.S. corn supply is looking increasingly tight.
Weekly export sales remain strong, and there’s a noticeable pickup in old crop demand globally. Recent export announcements over the last couple of weeks have further reduced available supplies. Coming off a record yield and what was initially expected to be large farm stocks, export bids are now increasing as markets scramble to meet demand.
Export Bids Rising Fast Across Key Regions
Pacific Northwest (PNW) bids have surged nearly 30 cents over the past month and a half. Group 3 bids aren’t far behind, up almost 20 cents during the same period. Across much of the country, interior bids have been firming, driven by climbing export prices and a notable lack of corn movement.
In the Eastern Corn Belt, we’ve seen basis levels reach as high as +0.75 to purchase corn bushels—and even then, demand isn’t being fully met.
Northern Interior Markets Reacting to Slow Movement
Interior shuttle loaders in North Dakota and surrounding areas are bidding up for July and August, as corn isn’t moving like it typically does this time of year, or as was expected. Secondary rail freight costs have remained relatively stable amidst the increased basis levels, trading slightly over tariff, which indicates a lack of competition for freight.
Feed Demand Quietly Holding the Floor
While exports have grabbed the spotlight, domestic feed demand hasn’t gone anywhere. It's quietly holding the floor, keeping a bid under basis in several livestock-heavy regions. Feed yards in the Southern Plains and poultry operations in the Southeast continue to chase bushels, often competing head-to-head with export buyers. The tug-of-war for remaining supplies is only adding more fuel to already firm prices.
Brazil’s Export Window Narrowing
And let’s not forget South America. Brazil’s second corn crop is coming off the field, but logistical congestion and domestic politics are muddying the waters. Vessel lineups at key ports are growing, and some cargoes are already delayed. With global buyers still looking to fill nearby needs, the U.S. remains the most reliable origin in the short term, keeping a solid floor under bids.
So, Where Is the Corn?
The big question remains: Is the corn still sitting in the bins, or has most of it already left the country? Or maybe—it was never there in the first place?
Alex Andel
Basis and Freight | Market Advisor, Northern Plains
As our basis and freight expert, Alex assesses current market conditions and forecasts future scenarios. His keen insights create transparency in the cash market, resulting in significant returns for our clients.
Connect with Alex