June 30 USDA Report: A Snoozer on Paper, Subtle Signals in the Numbers
If you were looking for the biggest snoozer June 30 report in recent memory, you were in luck. December corn closed down 2'2c and November soybeans up 2'2c. Prior to this, Dec corn's smallest daily change on report day since at least 2008.
Corn: Strong Basis, Weak Reaction
Acres and stocks came in friendlier than early chatter suggested, but price action was anything but. Basis continues to firm, bolstered by Monday’s confirmation that stocks are tighter across most regions outside of Iowa, at the southwest cattle feeding centers. It’s likely that an increase in CRP acres helped keep corn and soybean acres below expectations.
The average trade guess (ATG) from StoneX was for a slight 25,000-acre bump to 95.35 million planted acres. USDA, however, came in below both the ATG and March estimate of 95.326 million, posting just 95.203 million. There was plenty of hoopla predicting acres closer to 96.5 million. USDA also noted 3.62 million acres were still left to plant—the second highest since 2020—in a market where prices are on the decline.
Many expected a bearish surprise in the corn stocks report due to collapsing Jul/Sep spreads, and they weren't wrong to suspect it. USDA's figure matched the ATG at 4.644 billion bushels, implying a disappearance of 4.64 billion bushels, 150 million more than the same period last year. While some said corn was being replaced in rations and river basis was below DVE, post-July FND chatter suggests basis has rebounded to DVE. With current demand trends, further cuts to domestic ending stocks are likely, in my opinion, potentially down to the low 1300s or even high 1200s.
Source: USDA
Soybeans: Yield Concerns Intensify
The market had been pricing in fewer soybean acres, and the report confirmed that a lower yield will be tougher to stomach at current price levels.
Soybean acres dropped 275,000 below the ATG and 115,000 below March estimates. Acres surged in North Dakota, implying a shift from earlier projections. This shift raises questions about yield potential, especially with a drop in Eastern Corn Belt acres and increases in the southern/northern plains. Simple math says it’ll be harder to achieve that higher national yield, even before considering the long-term summer forecast.
Since October 2024, the soybean situation has shifted considerably. Back then, domestic carryout was pegged at 550 million bushels; now it’s down to 350 million with signs it could drop further. While the stocks report slightly beat expectations, neutralizing bullish acreage data, the quick fade in Nov beans' 10-12 cent gain post-report suggests the market had been expecting more acres, likely intended for corn.
Source: USDA
Wheat: Heavy Stocks, Shifting Acreage
Wheat stocks are capping any significant price rally.
Wheat acres rose above expectations at 45.478 million, topping both the March estimate of 45.35 million and staying just below last year’s 46.1 million. Gains in winter wheat and durum offset decline in other spring wheat categories. ND is expected to cut wheat acres by 350,000 to 5 million, with Montana trimming 150,000. Despite record-low spring wheat acreage, Minnesota's acreage gain could support better yields due to its historically stronger performance.
Stocks remain high, keeping wheat prices subdued as the market seeks export competitiveness. The Grain Stocks report merely confirmed what was already known—not bullish, but crucial for setting a price floor that reflects fundamentals.
Garret Brown
Founder | Market Advisor
Having grown up on a farm, Garret respects the wide range of skills needed to run a successful operation and recognizes farmers are often stretched thin trying to do it all. This understanding, along with his affinity for markets, fuels his drive to make tough marketing decisions simpler for farmers.
Leveraging his experience in grain origination and margin management, Garret analyzes technical and fundamental market information. With the assistance of CODAK’s algorithmic signaling platform, he puts together buy/sell recommendations while working with the CODAK team to create strategies that accommodate each farmer’s personal risk tolerance, on-farm storage capacity, and break-evens.