Weather Delays Hamper Eastern Corn Belt Planting Progress
Challenging Conditions Threaten Crop Yields and Market Stability
Planting season has surged ahead in many parts of the country, but not all regions are seeing smooth progress. Farmers in Ohio, Southern Indiana, Southern Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee are facing ongoing delays due to excess precipitation. A few areas are nearly double the 10-year average rainfall for 2025.
West Tennessee has already hit its late planting deadline, raising concerns among farmers and crop insurance companies about prevent plant (PP) claims. The recent barrage of storms has left some farms with over 5 inches of rainfall, saturating fields. The 10-day forecast is not currently showing signs of improvement.
Impacts Beyond Planting Delays
Heavy rainfall hasn’t just paused planting—it’s also contributing to stunted plants and loss of nitrogen from leaching, which can damage emerging crops and reduce yield potential. The USDA currently projects a record yield of 181 bushels per acre on 95.3 million acres, but those numbers may be challenged if poor weather conditions persist. There are nearly 20 million acres yet to be planted as of the last USDA planting progress, and it's already the last half of May.
According to the University of Illinois farmdocDaily, late planting ranks third in factors affecting corn yield, behind July precipitation and temperature. These potential yield reductions could be what we need to see markets rally: the May WASDE report forecasts U.S. 2025/26 ending stocks at just 1.8 million bushels, with global stocks at their lowest levels since 2013/14.
Market Eyes on Weather Risks
With stocks tightening and fields struggling, the market is watching closely. As weather risk increases, volatility may rise. Stakeholders across the ag industry should monitor developments and prepare for the potential impact on yields and pricing.
Source: USDA | Farmdoc Daily
Kyle Adams
Crop Insurance Expert | Marketing Advisor, Eastern Corn Belt
With more than a decade of experience as a crop insurance agent, Kyle integrates our marketing strategies with crop insurance products to maximize both sets of tools, creating a well-rounded risk management program for our clients.
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