2024 Final County Yields Released: What It Means for ECO/SCO Payments
RMA Final Yield Data Enables SCO/ECO Payouts
On Thursday, June 12, the Risk Management Agency (RMA) released final yield and revenue data for the 2024 crop year.
Payouts are expected to reach bank accounts or mailboxes shortly, if not already. The primary trigger for these claims was the significant price decline between Spring and Harvest:
Corn: Price fell approximately 10.7%
Soybeans: Dropped by about 13.1%
However, not all counties will receive payouts. The attached maps show areas where claims should trigger. In most cases, counties highlighted in red required yields to fall below expectations in addition to the price decline.
AI Validates USDA's Yield Estimates
With assistance from AI, the reported farmer-submitted yields were multiplied by harvested acres at the county level to verify the USDA’s average yield estimate. The AI-calculated weighted average closely matched the USDA’s reported 179.3 bushels per acre (BPA) for corn, reinforcing confidence in the data's accuracy without time-intensive manual calculations.
This validation enhances trust in production numbers and reduces the risk of future revisions.
Eastern Corn Belt: Hot Basis, High Impact
The persistent "hot basis" trend in the Eastern Corn Belt continues to reflect strong local demand amid tight supply dynamics. The new data sheds light on this pattern, with actual production figures confirming yield outcomes that affect both local pricing and broader market behavior.
ARC/PLC Payments
With the release of the county yields, we are also one step closer to discovering the likelihood of payments for ARC-CO. The last part of the equation is to see what USDA uses as the final Marketing Year Price (MYP). The MYP is weighted monthly based on expected percentage of sales leaving little expectation for those numbers to change drastically by the end of August. I can’t promise all the counties in red will receive ARC payments, but I live in a red county, and I expect mine to trigger payments.
Source: USDA | Farmdoc Daily
Kyle Adams
Crop Insurance Expert | Marketing Advisor, Eastern Corn Belt
With more than a decade of experience as a crop insurance agent, Kyle integrates our marketing strategies with crop insurance products to maximize both sets of tools, creating a well-rounded risk management program for our clients.
Connect with Kyle