ARC/PLC Payments Look Promising: What 2025 Updates Mean for 2026 Decisions
The 2018 Farm Bill continues to live well beyond its original five-year life expectancy and is now entering its eighth year. With the 2026 elections less than two months away, this is a good time to step back and evaluate how the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) reshaped the outlook for 2025 ARC/PLC payments—and what those changes could mean for your 2026 program decision.
A Quick Farm Bill Check-In
For context, 2024 ARC/PLC payments should have been issued in October 2025, assuming eligibility paperwork was on file prior to the government shutdown. While those payments are largely behind us, the bigger story is how the updated provisions affect 2025 payments and beyond.
Key Changes for 2025 ARC/PLC
One of the most significant updates for 2025 is the new higher-of payment provision. Regardless of which program producers elected back in March 2025, payments will be based on whichever program—ARC or PLC—provides the higher benefit. That change alone reduces the risk of being “locked into” the wrong program for the year.
On the PLC side, reference prices saw meaningful increases compared to 2024:
Corn increased 11%, moving from $4.01 to $4.42
Soybeans rose 19%, from $9.26 to $10.71
Wheat increased 15%, from $5.50 to $6.35
ARC also received a boost, with the revenue guarantee increasing to 90%, up from the previous 85%. This raises the potential for ARC payments in counties that experienced yield losses or revenue pressure in 2025.
Image from Real Ag Stock
What Payments Are Looking Like
Based on current information, PLC payments are expected on every base acre for corn, soybeans, and wheat. That said, some counties may ultimately see higher ARC payments depending on how 2025 weather conditions affect yields.
The January 12 WASDE report showed Marketing Year Average (MYA) prices below the newly raised PLC reference prices:
Corn MYA at $4.10, a 32-cent shortfall
Soybeans MYA at $10.20, a 51-cent shortfall
Wheat MYA at $4.90, a $1.45 shortfall
As a reminder, projected PLC payments are calculated by multiplying the price shortfall by the PLC yield and base acres. While final numbers won’t be known until MYA prices are finalized, current projections suggest meaningful support across all three crops.
Timing and Looking Ahead to 2026
Payments for the 2025 crop year are scheduled to be issued in October 2026. In the meantime, producers should already be thinking about next year’s decisions.
The ARC/PLC election deadline for 2026 is March 15, 2026. One additional point worth noting is crop insurance flexibility: producers may purchase Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) coverage and still enroll in ARC, offering more tools to manage risk heading into the new crop year.
Bottom Line
Between higher reference prices, an improved ARC guarantee, and the higher-of payment provision, the outlook for 2025 ARC/PLC payments is noticeably stronger than in recent years. While final payment levels will depend on prices and county yields, the updated framework provides more downside protection and flexibility as producers plan for 2026.
Kyle Adams
Crop Insurance Expert | Marketing Advisor, Eastern Corn Belt
With more than a decade of experience as a crop insurance agent, Kyle integrates our marketing strategies with crop insurance products to maximize both sets of tools, creating a well-rounded risk management program for our clients.
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