PNW Corn Basis April Update: Market Shifts and Summer Outlook

Apr 15

PNW corn basis remained relatively steady following the harvest rush, trading within a consistent range until the onset of the US-Iran war. Since then, local corn basis has dropped by as much as 20 cents at most facilities. Before the conflict, bids consistently ranged from -0.50 to -0.60, a level that held from December through the middle of February.

Impact of Fuel Costs and Freight on Basis

Rising Oil Prices and Rail Surcharges

Secondary freight has largely remained stable, other than some front-month spikes, which have helped keep bids aligned. However, as oil prices climbed, railroads increased fuel surcharges. Several locations reported increases in mileage charges to export after numerous years at the previous mileage, raising the break-even range for commercial elevators.

Stable Export Demand, Weak Local Basis

While PNW export bids have stayed relatively unchanged, higher fuel costs have had the greatest impact on local basis values.

Supply Pressure and Ethanol Market Shifts

Higher On-Farm Stocks in North Dakota

USDA data shows significantly higher on-farm stocks in North Dakota compared to prior years, suggesting that returning to previous basis levels may be difficult as bins must be cleared before the next harvest.

Ethanol Plants Reduce Demand

Two major ethanol plants have gone “No Bid” for June/July delivery after meeting their supply needs. This leaves commercial elevators as the primary delivery point for remaining unsold bushels.

Summer Outlook for Corn Marketing

Seasonal Basis Improvement Possibilities

Historically, basis strengthens during planting season as farmer selling slows, and PNW export business continues. With USDA reporting higher on-farm stocks and a dwindling shipping window, opportunities are getting smaller as we approach new crop bushels hitting the market.

Early Elevator Demand Signals Opportunity

Recent export sales confirm continued demand for U.S. corn, and some elevators are already seeking summer bushels—earlier than usual—indicating potential short-term opportunities as an attempt to capture early sales to the PNW.

Act Quickly in a High-Supply Environment

While this signals opportunity, any upside may be short-lived given the large supply. Producers should be prepared to act quickly and lock in basis when opportunities arise.

Alex Andel

Basis and Freight | Market Advisor, Northern Plains

As our basis and freight expert, Alex assesses current market conditions and forecasts future scenarios. His keen insights create transparency in the cash market, resulting in significant returns for our clients.

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Garret Brown